momentum.
FINAL · FRI, OCT 23

Tampa Bay
Lightning
Tampa Bay
3–6FINAL
Colorado
Avalanche
Colorado

The story: MacKinnon, Necas Explode as Avalanche Conquer Lightning

GAME STORY

MacKinnon, Necas Explode as Avalanche Conquer Lightning

The Colorado Avalanche powered past the Tampa Bay Lightning 6-3 in regulation, spearheaded by multi-point performances from Nathan MacKinnon and Martin Necas.

The Colorado Avalanche set a dominant tone early against Tampa Bay, scoring twice in the first period, including a power-play goal from Nazem Kadri. Fedor Svechkov extended the lead to three early in the second. Though Jake Guentzel netted two goals for the Lightning, including one on the power play, Colorado consistently answered. Artturi Lehkonen scored after Guentzel's first, and Nathan MacKinnon delivered a crucial goal four minutes into the third period to re-establish a comfortable lead. Martin Necas later sealed the 6-3 victory with an empty-net goal.

Nathan MacKinnon earned first star honors, leading Colorado's offense with one goal and three assists for a four-point night. Second star Martin Necas contributed a goal and two assists for three points. Artturi Lehkonen, the third star, added a goal and an assist. For Tampa Bay, Jake Guentzel scored both regulation goals, while Brayden Point assisted on both, and Charle-Edouard D'Astous tallied a goal and an assist.

The final result matched momentum.'s analytics, with our model correctly predicting a Colorado Avalanche victory, having given them a 62% chance to win. The Avalanche's potent offense, particularly the high-impact performances from their star forwards, solidified this projection and ultimately outmaneuvered the Lightning.

The whole night: Evans Explodes: Canadiens Stun Blackhawks with Dominant Performance →
THREE STARS · OFFICIAL

Tonight's best.

KEY PLAYERS · HOW THEY DID

The three hottest on each side.

OUR PICK · HOW IT PLAYED

The model called it.

62%COL WIN
✓ HIT
YTD: 55%
COL won — the model called it.
TBL 38%COL 62%
Why · Top Factors
Dominic James 50Top Heat43 Nicolas Roy
100Energy100
90Goalie SV%90.5
3Rest Days3
1H2H Wins (L2)1
HEAT IMPACT

Who moved up. Who moved down.

If you missed it
MARKET ODDS · 23 BOOKMAKERS

What the books say.

Our model: COL 62% · Market (Pinnacle): COL 53%

◆PinnaclesharpestTBL 2.10 · COL 1.83
TBL
COL
TBL 47%COL 53%
All bookmakers (22)
Coolbet
TBL 36%COL 41%
Onexbet
TBL 36%COL 42%
Marathonbet
TBL 36%COL 42%
Unibet fr
TBL 36%COL 41%
Sport888
TBL 47%COL 53%
William Hill
TBL 47%COL 53%
Betclic fr
TBL 36%COL 42%
Codere it
TBL 36%COL 41%
Winamax fr
TBL 36%COL 41%
Winamax de
TBL 37%COL 42%
Betonlineag
TBL 48%COL 52%
Gtbets
TBL 47%COL 53%
Unibet se
TBL 35%COL 42%
Unibet nl
TBL 35%COL 42%
Leovegas se
TBL 35%COL 42%
Betsson
TBL 47%COL 53%
Nordicbet
TBL 47%COL 53%
Mybookieag
TBL 47%COL 53%
Matchbook
TBL 47%COL 53%
Betanysports
TBL 47%COL 53%
Tipico de
TBL 35%COL 42%
Everygame
TBL 46%COL 54%

Win % removes the bookmaker margin · decimal odds shown beside each book.

BOX SCORE · SOURCE: NHL.COM

Everyone who played.

Sorted by points, then ice time. Heat is each player's form over his last five games.

Tampa BayTampa Bay Lightning34 SOG · 30 HIT · 12 BLK · 8 PIM · 1 PPG
FORWARDSGAPTS+/-SOGHITBLKPIMFO%TOIHEAT
59Jake GuentzelC1 PPG202073025022:120
21Brayden PointC022030006020:500
38Brandon HagelL011-12102–20:330
93Gage GoncalvesC011+13100–17:590
86Nikita KucherovR000-12010–20:430
71Anthony CirelliC000-211105917:190
95Ilya MikheyevR000-31100–13:52–
28Zemgus GirgensonsC000-224106012:550
94Conor GeekieC000016105012:350
17Dominic JamesC000011025012:280
29Pontus HolmbergR000-21100–11:590
DEFENSEGAPTS+/-SOGHITBLKPIMFO%TOIHEAT
51Charle-Edouard D'AstousD112+23532–21:060
24Max CrozierD01103210–17:170
74John CarlsonD000-21100–18:150
27Ryan McDonaghD000-20100–17:270
81Erik CernakD000-21220–16:44–
90J.J. MoserD000-12020–15:150
77Victor HedmanD000-10000–5:560
GOALIESDECSAGASVSV%TOI
88Andrei VasilevskiyL23518.78359:52
ColoradoColorado Avalanche24 SOG · 16 HIT · 19 BLK · 10 PIM · 1 PPG
FORWARDSGAPTS+/-SOGHITBLKPIMFO%TOIHEAT
29Nathan MacKinnonC134+440106018:100
88Martin NecasC123+41020–16:320
62Artturi LehkonenLGWG112+21102–18:560
91Nazem KadriC1 PPG101-112104015:030
9Fedor SvechkovC101010006311:48–
13T.J. HughesR011+14000–13:100
71Jaden SchwartzL011-10100–13:070
92Gabriel LandeskogL011+11210–11:510
11Brock NelsonC000-100203318:220
25Logan O'ConnorR00003002–14:470
17Parker KellyC000011302514:170
16Taylor MakarL00000112–8:11–
DEFENSEGAPTS+/-SOGHITBLKPIMFO%TOIHEAT
7Devon ToewsD112+32002–17:390
8Cale MakarD000+23000–21:070
27Brett KulakD000+20040–21:060
70Sam MalinskiD00001222–19:05–
42Josh MansonD00000400–18:210
84Brent BurnsD000-11220–18:150
GOALIESDECSAGASVSV%TOI
39Mackenzie BlackwoodW34331.91260:00