momentum.
FINAL · MON, OCT 26

Toronto
Maple Leafs
Toronto
2–5FINAL
Calgary
Flames
Calgary

The story: Matvei Gridin's Two Goals Spark Flames Past Maple Leafs

GAME STORY

Matvei Gridin's Two Goals Spark Flames Past Maple Leafs

The Calgary Flames defeated the Toronto Maple Leafs 5-2, propelled by a dominant early offensive display that included two goals from Matvei Gridin.

The Calgary Flames seized control early and never looked back, defeating the Toronto Maple Leafs 5-2. Matvei Gridin opened the scoring 10 minutes into the first period, with assists from Martin Pospisil and Simon Nemec. Mikael Backlund quickly extended Calgary's lead less than two minutes later. Just 25 seconds into the second period, Gridin capitalized on a power play, making it 3-0 and solidifying the Flames' advantage. Toronto attempted a comeback, with Easton Cowan scoring late in the second period and William Nylander narrowing the deficit six minutes into the third. However, late empty-net goals from Joel Farabee and Martin Pospisil secured Calgary's decisive victory.

Matvei Gridin was the undisputed first star, delivering two goals and an assist with a +2 rating in just 16.2 minutes of ice time. Joel Farabee earned the second star for his one goal and one assist, also with a +2 rating. While not scoring, Zayne Parekh contributed an assist on a crucial power-play goal, earning him the third star. Calgary's depth scoring was evident, as Martin Pospisil matched Farabee with a goal and an assist, while Matt Coronato and Simon Nemec each registered two assists. For Toronto, Easton Cowan and William Nylander provided the only offense with a goal apiece, and Auston Matthews recorded an assist.

momentum.'s pre-game model had predicted a tight contest, giving the Calgary Flames just a 46% chance to win. This forecast proved incorrect, as Calgary delivered a performance that defied the odds and their statistical projection, securing a comfortable win in regulation. The Flames' offensive outburst, particularly their early goals, demonstrated a capability beyond what the analytics suggested for this matchup.

The whole night: Kings Crown Themselves in MSG, Hand Rangers First Home Loss →
EVERY GOAL · WATCH

How the goals went in.

THREE STARS · OFFICIAL

Tonight's best.

KEY PLAYERS · HOW THEY DID

The three hottest on each side.

OUR PICK · HOW IT PLAYED

The model missed this one.

54%TOR WIN
✗ MISS
YTD: 55%
TOR was favored but lost.
TOR 54%CGY 46%
Why · Top Factors
Zack MacEwen 66Top Heat59 Morgan Frost
100Energy99
86.9Goalie SV%90.3
2Rest Days2
2H2H Wins (L2)0
TOR easier schedule
HEAT IMPACT

Who moved up. Who moved down.

If you missed it
MARKET ODDS · 23 BOOKMAKERS

What the books say.

Our model: TOR 54% · Market (Pinnacle): TOR 55%

◆PinnaclesharpestTOR 1.76 · CGY 2.18
TOR
CGY
TOR 55%CGY 45%
All bookmakers (22)
William Hill
TOR 55%CGY 45%
Betclic fr
TOR 44%CGY 34%
Onexbet
TOR 44%CGY 34%
Gtbets
TOR 55%CGY 45%
Unibet nl
TOR 44%CGY 33%
Unibet se
TOR 44%CGY 34%
Leovegas se
TOR 44%CGY 34%
Coolbet
TOR 44%CGY 33%
Matchbook
TOR 55%CGY 45%
Mybookieag
TOR 55%CGY 45%
Betanysports
TOR 55%CGY 45%
Tipico de
TOR 46%CGY 33%
Nordicbet
TOR 55%CGY 45%
Betsson
TOR 55%CGY 45%
Unibet fr
TOR 44%CGY 34%
Betonlineag
TOR 56%CGY 44%
Marathonbet
TOR 44%CGY 34%
Codere it
TOR 44%CGY 34%
Winamax fr
TOR 44%CGY 34%
Winamax de
TOR 45%CGY 34%
Sport888
TOR 55%CGY 45%
Everygame
TOR 59%CGY 41%

Win % removes the bookmaker margin · decimal odds shown beside each book.

BOX SCORE · SOURCE: NHL.COM

Everyone who played.

Sorted by points, then ice time. Heat is each player's form over his last five games.

TorontoToronto Maple Leafs28 SOG · 23 HIT · 16 BLK · 17 PIM
FORWARDSGAPTS+/-SOGHITBLKPIMFO%TOIHEAT
88William NylanderR10104102–19:140
53Easton CowanR101-11204–15:300
34Auston MatthewsC011-111244619:000
96Jack RoslovicC011-11000–18:430
20Nick PaulL000-11100–17:350
92Gavin McKennaL00001000–14:500
73Teddy BluegerC000-131107314:270
15Colton SissonsC000012107514:170
71Vinni LettieriC000-11310–11:540
24Brandon DuhaimeL000-12300–11:11–
19Zack MacEwenR000-22315–10:120
86Kirill MarchenkoR00001000–7:050
DEFENSEGAPTS+/-SOGHITBLKPIMFO%TOIHEAT
28Troy StecherD011+11010–22:04–
44Morgan RiellyD011+11020–19:27–
43Darren RaddyshD000-23120–23:49–
95Oliver Ekman-LarssonD000-23200–19:140
22Jake McCabeD000-10130–18:170
36Dakota MermisD00001222–13:330
GOALIESDECSAGASVSV%TOI
72Sergei BobrovskyL32329.90658:55
CalgaryCalgary Flames34 SOG · 24 HIT · 4 BLK · 11 PIM · 1 PPG
FORWARDSGAPTS+/-SOGHITBLKPIMFO%TOIHEAT
92Matvei GridinRGWG213+25010–16:110
86Joel FarabeeL112+22200–24:080
76Martin PospisilC112+224023312:200
27Matt CoronatoR022+22000–18:440
11Mikael BacklundC101+110125318:320
17Yegor SharangovichC000-1110010016:470
16Morgan FrostC000-120002516:110
61Aydar SunievL000-16200–14:250
22Ryan StromeC000+150007513:480
43Adam KlapkaR00000500–11:480
38Jonathan CastagnaC000011001010:200
78Brennan OthmannL000-11402–9:220
DEFENSEGAPTS+/-SOGHITBLKPIMFO%TOIHEAT
71Simon NemecD022+21100–21:510
19Zayne ParekhD011-13000–20:11–
37Yan KuznetsovD011-10110–13:57–
7Kevin BahlD000+30000–21:46–
28Zach WhitecloudD000+12110–17:470
55Jake MiddletonD00000205–16:140
GOALIESDECSAGASVSV%TOI
1Devin CooleyW28226.92959:38